2018 was a pivotal year for power markets. Sharp price increases dominated developments. In our forecasts we discuss whether this trend will continue. In special chapters we look into PPAs and consequences of the German coal exit.
Increasing fuel and carbon prices led to a significant price rally in European power markets in 2018. In our forecasts we analyse to what extent this is only a one-time adjustment or a sustainable trend.
In our power price forecast reports, we discuss likely developments for power markets along different scenarios and sensitivities, and show consequences for prices, generation mix, demand, capacity mix, and trade.
We simulate three different scenarios, differentiated by market fundamentals and climate policy developments. Our “high” scenario was substantially revised, and now also takes account of the potential role of hydrogen in the power sector and consequences for power demand.
Our European market report now covers Austria, in addition to Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK. The Nordic market report covers Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark (on price zone granularity).
In the European power price forecast, we have a special chapter on the German coal exit strategy, and likely implications for prices, the EU-ETS and carbon emissions.
For the Nordic forecast, we have a special chapter on PPAs, where we discuss risk aspects and how the value of wind should be accounted for in PPA valuations.
We also updated our outlook for the Nordic elcertificate market.
As always, all our reports are accompanied by extensive data material, wind and PV weighted prices, and workshops for those that want to discuss our forecasts with THEMA’s power market experts in more detail.