THEMA’s elcertificate model

elcertificate marketTHEMA’s elcertificate model is an advanced, simulation model of the Swedish/Norwegian elcertificate market. The model is actively developed by THEMA Consulting Group and has been applied in a wide range of projects, including price forecasts, regulatory analysis, due diligence projects and investment analyses. The model is also licensed to Nordic and European utilities and is constantly updated, maintained and improved.

THEMA’s elcertificate model integrates a fundamental investment approach to determine new build, with an option pricing approach to calculate the elcertificate price. The reason we use an option pricing approach is because it allows us to directly incorporate uncertainty over the future supply of energy from renewable sources, and the resulting risk of elcertificate scarcity, within the price formation process.

Key features

  • Fundamental elcertificate market model with option-based pricing: THEMA’s advanced elcertificate market model combines a fundamental approach to determine new build with an option-based approach to determine certificate prices.
  • Updated project database: A key part of the model is THEMA’s database of wind projects in Norway and Sweden. The database contains approximately 400 projects in different stages of development, each of which is modelled bottom-up using cost estimates specific to the project.
  • Modelling production and consumption uncertainty: Using data on the historic variation of both demand and wind generation, the model uses Monte Carlo simulation to consider 1000 scenarios of certificate supply and demand. Using this approach, it sheds light on the likelihood of a future supply shortage within the certificate market.

What you get

  • Model: THEMA’s elcertificate model is implemented in GAMS and can therefore be run using commercial solvers like CPLEX or GUROBI. Crucially, it has an Excel-based interface for both inputs and outputs.
  • R-based pricing model: The option-based pricing model, implemented in R, allows users to directly incorporate uncertainty over the future supply of energy from renewable sources, and the resulting risk of elcertificate scarcity.
  • Introductory workshop and ongoing support: We help customers to get the model up and running and present both the model and how to use it in a personalised introductory workshop. The license also includes a number of hours of ongoing support.
  • Updates: The elcertificate market model is continually updated and developed based on customer requests. An updated database covering renewable generation projects is delivered to clients annually.


The model is used by THEMA to provide its elcertificate price forecasts and by utilities investing in elcertificate-eligible production or trading in the elcertificate market. Please contact us for detailed references.


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Arndt von Schemde Partner and CEO, PhD
+47 982 63 986

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