Nordic power price forecast

Nordic Power Market Forecast

THEMA is a market-leading provider of Nordic power market forecasts. We publish quarterly forecasts for the period to 2045. These forecasts help investors and developers take investment decisions, value investment opportunities, and assess market risk. The forecast comes in the form of a report, complemented by detailed data in Excel format, and is generally provided alongside a bespoke workshop. We deliver full hourly price series and market values for wind and PV for all Nordic bidding zones.

Main takeaways and key content

  • Climate policies matter: In our latest forecast we developed three different price scenarios, largely differentiated by our underlying assumptions on (global) climate policies. This leads to different developments concerning prices, price volatility, and the generation mix.
  • Falling renewable energy and battery costs change market dynamics: With falling renewable energy and battery costs, future investments in renewables and storage may not need subsidies. Taking end-user tariffs and taxes into account, this can have a significant effect on investments in distributed renewable generation and the prevalence of so-called prosumers.
  • The risk picture is changing: Our forecasts come with a range of sensitivities in addition to the core scenarios, which show the importance and role of key price drivers, such as gas prices, coal prices and carbon costs.
  • Always up-to-date: Our forecasts always include the latest market and policy developments.
  • Special issue: In each issue we discuss a topic that is highly relevant given current market developments and policy.

What you get

  • Report, data in Excel format, and workshops: The forecast is delivered as a concise and to-the-point PDF report, and is accompanied by detailed data in Excel and (optional) workshops. The workshops give clients the opportunity to discuss the forecast with THEMA’s power market experts.
  • System prices and area prices for all bidding zones in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark: Prices are delivered with hourly granularity alongside annual average prices for the time period 2019-2045.
  • Understanding the market: The forecast provides a thorough analysis of market drivers and price risk. In workshops, we give the client the opportunity to discuss results and assumptions in face-to-face meetings with our experts.
  • Developments in the generation mix, demand, and trade: The forecast describes all underlying market developments concerning the generation mix, cross-border exchange and demand. For demand, we take account of increasing power demand from electric vehicles, data centers, the petroleum industry and other industry.
  • Market value and cannibalisation factors: We estimate the market values for wind and PV in the Nordic market for all prices zones. With increasing amounts of new renewables in the Nordic market, this factor is becoming more and more important in investment decisions.
  • Scenarios and sensitivities: We model three different main scenarios in addition to a range of sensitivities around key price drivers for the time period to 2045.

References

Our clients include major utilities, investment funds, developers, banks, authorities, and other stakeholders in the power markets. Please contact us for detailed references.

The consultants responsible for the forecast have strong academic records in Mathematics, Economics, Engineering, and a long professional background from the industry.

Other forecasts and services

THEMA also offers a range of other forecasts and services. Follow the links below for further information.

European power market forecast >>

Green Values >>

Tailored advice, services, and models >>

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