Green values – the markets for guarantees of origin, CO2 allowances, elcertificates and other support schemes

Green Values
Green Values

Renewable power generation achieves additional revenues via the markets for guarantees of origin and CO2 allowances, and from elcertificates and other support schemes. Our Green Values report focuses on the status for and future of these values.

Main takeaways and key content

  • EU ETS: The EU Emissions System (EU ETS) constitutes an indirect revenue stream to an investor in renewable energy generation since it increases power prices without increasing costs. The price of allowances has increased significantly in recent years due to market reforms.
  • Guarantees of origin: Guarantees of origin (GO) are playing an increasing role as a revenue stream for new renewable generation and as a green label for power consumers. In the analysis we look at the consequences of both supply and demand developments, and present a forecast for GO prices to 2045.
  • Elsertifikatordningen: The Elcertificate scheme has served as an additional market-based revenue stream for renewable energy projects in Norway and Sweden since 2012. We present an analysis of the supply/demand balance and price trends for the life time of the market.
  • Additional green income
    Streams: To achieve a higher share of renewables in their energy mix, most countries have established support schemes to encourage investments in new renewable generation capacity. A chapter in the report provides an overview of the main support schemes in Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain and Netherlands

What you get

  • Report, data in Excel format, and workshops: The forecast is delivered as a concise and to-the-point PDF report, and is accompanied by detailed data in Excel and (optional) workshops. The workshops give clients the opportunity to discuss the forecast with THEMA’s market experts.
  • Price projections for EU ETS, GOs and Elcertificates: We present our price forecasts for the three markets to 2045
  • Understanding markets: The forecast provides a thorough analysis of market drivers and price risk. In workshops, we give the client the opportunity to discuss the results and assumptions in face-to-face meetings with our experts.
  • Market developments: We sum up historic price developments alongside regulatory changes and changes in supply or demand.


Our clients include major utilities, investment funds, developers, banks, authorities, and other stakeholders in the elcertificate markets. Please contact us for detailed references.

The consultants responsible for the forecast have strong academic records in Mathematics, Economics, Engineering, and a long professional background from the industry.

Other forecasts and services

THEMA also offers a range of other forecasts and services. Follow the links below for further information.

Nordic power market forecast >>

European power market forecast >>

Tailored advice, services, and models >>