European power price forecast

gen_mix_germany nyTHEMA is a market-leading provider of European power market forecasts. THEMA publishes quarterly power price forecasts for the Continental European markets in Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Great Britain for the period to 2045. The forecasts help investors and developers take investment decisions, value investment opportunities, and assess market risks. The forecast comes in the form of a report, complemented by detailed data in Excel format, and is generally provided alongside a bespoke workshop. We deliver full hourly price series and market values for wind and PV for all countries.

Main takeaways and key content

  • Climate policies matter: In our latest forecast we developed three different price scenarios, largely differentiated by our underlying assumptions on (global) climate policies. This leads to different developments concerning prices, price volatility, and the generation mix.
  • Falling renewable energy and battery costs change market dynamics: With falling renewable energy and battery costs, future investments in renewables and storage may not need subsidies. Taking end-user tariffs and taxes into account, this can have a significant effect on investments in distributed renewable generation and the prevalence of so-called prosumers.
  • The risk picture is changing: Our forecasts come with a range of sensitivities in addition to the core scenarios, which show the importance and role of key price drivers, such as gas prices, coal prices and carbon costs.
  • Always up-to-date: Our forecasts always include the latest market and policy developments. For example, the latest issue includes the 2030 targets outlined by the new German coalition government.
  • Special issue – Coal exit Germany: A commission appointed by the federal German government has proposed a widely received plan to phase out lignite and coal fired generation in Germany by 2038. In this Special Issue, we dig deeper into the topic and describe the background and recommendations of the commission, discuss the impact on power and EUA prices, and highlight uncertainties related to the proposal.

A flyer with more information about our price forecasts can be downloaded here:

Price forecasts for Europe’s power sectors >>

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What you get

  • Report, data in Excel format, and workshops: The forecast covers Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Great Britain. The forecast is delivered as a concise and to-the-point PDF report, and is accompanied by detailed data in Excel and (optional) workshops. The workshops give clients the opportunity to discuss the forecast with THEMA’s power market experts.
  • Prices for Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Great Britain: Prices are delivered with hourly granularity alongside annual average prices for the time period 2019-2045.
  • Understanding the market: The forecast provides a thorough analysis of market drivers and price risk. In workshops, we give the client the opportunity to discuss results and assumptions in face-to-face meetings with our experts.
  • Developments in the generation mix, demand, and trade: The forecast describes all underlying market developments concerning the generation mix, cross-border exchange, and demand. We also describe other market and policy risks, as well as the latest developments in the different countries.
  • Market value and cannibalisation factors: We estimate the market values for wind and PV in all simulated countries.
  • Scenarios and sensitivities: We model three different main scenarios in addition to a range of sensitivities around key price drivers for the period to 2045.
  • Additional countries: As part of the forecast, we model all major countries in Europe, including Italy and Spain. On request, we can provide forecasts and data covering additional countries.

References

Our clients include major utilities, investment funds, developers, banks, authorities, and other stakeholders in the power markets. Please contact us for detailed references.

The consultants responsible for the forecast have strong academic records in Mathematics, Economics, Engineering, and a long professional background from other relevant companies (ECON, Boston Consulting Group, Nena, Deutsche Bank, Pöyry, Charles River Associates).

Other forecasts and services

THEMA also offers a range of other forecasts and services. Follow the links below for further information.

Nordic power market forecast >>

Elcertificate price forecast >>

Tailored advice, services, and models >>

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