New report analyses the markets for green values

28. October 2019 | News
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Renewable power generation achieves additional revenues via the markets for guarantees of origin and CO2 allowances, and from elcertificates and other support schemes. Our new Green Values report focuses on the status for and future of these values.

EU ETS

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) constitutes an indirect revenue stream to an investor in renewable energy generation since it increases power prices without increasing costs. The price of allowances has increased significantly in recent years due to market reforms. Due to the fundamental changes to the market, our analysis shows that the price will remain at the current level for the next years, before increasing further in the long term.

Guarantees of origin

Guarantees of origin (GO) are playing an increasing role as a revenue stream for new renewable generation and as a green label for power consumers. We expect both demand and supply for GOs to increase in the future. Brexit and the current Norwegian debate on potentially leaving the system, however, create some long-term ncertainties. These factors are discussed, and we forecast GO prices for the period up until 2045.

Elcertificates

The Elcertificate scheme has served as an additional market-based revenue stream for renewable energy projects in Norway and Sweden since 2012. Prices in the elcertificate system have fallen significantly over
the past year due to overinvestment. New capacity coming in over the next two years are expected to push the elcertifcate price close to zero. However, uncertainty remains on the design of the stop rule for the extended Swedish elcertificate market. The stop rule will be decided at the end of 2020 and might lead to a lift in prices.

Additional green income streams

To achieve a higher share of renewables in their energy mix, most countries have established support
schemes to encourage investments in new
renewable generation capacity. A chapter in the report provides an overview of the main support schemes
in Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain and Netherlands