Market

Analysis and modelling products

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Our market analysis team offers high quality products and solutions to our clients. Our consultants have degrees in Mathematics, Physics, Engineering, and Economics at Masters or PhD level.

We offer standardized price forecasts for the power markets in the Nordics and Germany as well as for the Elcertificate market. We also deliver tailored, high quality market analysis and investment support.

In addition, we offer model solutions to our clients. Our power market model TheMA – the backbone for our power market analysis and price forecasts – is widely used among clients in Europe. We also tailor models to our clients’ needs, such as hydro cascade optimization models and thermal power plant optimization models, as well as econometric models to forecast short-term price developments.

Price forecasts

We deliver a range of standard price forecasts:

European power price forecasts >>

Nordic power price forecast >>

Nordic Elcertificate price forecast >>

Each forecast contains a range of scenarios and sensitivities, in addition to our reference case. Our price forecasts are delivered in form of a PDF report, together with detailed results in Excel and a workshop where the forecast and its assumptions are discussed in detail.

In addition, we offer bespoke forecasts, analysis, and investment support to our clients. Our analyses are based on highly sophisticated simulation models that also are licensed to our clients.

Contact:

Modelling and Optimization

Our consultants and experts have a long track record and experience when it comes to modelling, optimization, and delivering tailored client solutions.

THEMA has a wide range of model solutions, including our fundamental power market model TheMA and our Elcertificate market model. The power market model TheMA is also licensed to a wide range of market participants in Europe. We have also developed a model for the EU-ETS market and a model for flow-based market coupling.

In addition, we offer a wide range of tailored models and optimization solutions to our clients, such as hydro cascade optimization models and models for optimizing dispatch from thermal plants.

We have also developed econometric models for short-term price forecasting in NW Europe.

TheMA Model

TheMA is a sophisticated power market model for NW Europe. It has an hourly time resolution and a detailed representation of hydro, RES, thermal technologies, and trade. It is implemented in GAMS, using CPLEX by IBM as a solver (or an equivalent solver such as GUROBI). It is licensed to a wide range of market participants in Europe, and its application ranges from short-term modelling, to medium term trade support, long-term forecasting and scenario modelling. The model is equipped with detailed data for power plants and other relevant parameters for power markets.

TheMA Model >>

TheMA Flow based

THEMA also offers a model for Flow Based Market Coupling (FBMC) in Central Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands). We have developed a generic modelling framework mimicking the new market clearing algorithm. The model can for instance be run with exogenously parametrized demand and supply curves, taking into account up-to-date forecasts for intermittent generation and demand. The model is implemented in GAMS, using CPLEX or other solvers, while inputs and outputs can be handled in e.g. MS Excel or R, or be included in an automated workflow.

TheMA Flow based >>

Contact:

Arndt von Schemde

Arndt von SchemdePartner and CEO, PhD
arndt.schemde@thema.no
+47 996 49 610